Trends in Trade, Finance, and Investment
In this episode of NBR’s Asia Insight podcast series, Thomas X. Hammes, Claire Reade, and Michael Beckley analyze globalization trends, U.S.-China trade and investment, and the effects of economic stagnation on Chinese security policy. The discussion, moderated by Amy Celico, took place at the Asia Policy Assembly on June 19.
Amy Celico is a Principal of Albright Stonebridge Group.
Thomas X. Hammes is a Distinguished Research Fellow at National Defense University’s Center for Strategic Research.
Claire Reade is a Senior Counsel at Arnold & Porter.
Michael Beckley is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University.
[2:29] Celico introduces the panelists and topic.
[9:47] Hammes discusses the fourth industrial revolution and indicators of de-globalization.
[12:13] He discusses the reasons behind previous trends in de-globalization. (For reference, see the charts Total Trade as % of GDP, Merchandise Trade as % of GDP, Global Financial Flows, and Current FDI Trends.)
[16:35] He examines the impact of energy production.
[18:02] He explains the shift from globalization to regionalization of economies.
[20:01] Reade discusses the future of U.S.-China trade and investment.
[25:18] She analyzes the Trump administration’s and Congress’s policies toward China.
[28:40] She explains the “bell curve” of views in the United States toward China.
[31:49] She examines the current U.S.-China trade war from both sides’ perspectives.
[36:51] Beckley discusses how China’s slowing economy will heighten U.S.-China conflict.
[38:15] He analyzes three findings regarding the Chinese economy.
[43:30] He assesses the impact of China’s expansionism on U.S. policy.
[46:59] Q&A begins.
[47:52] Reade discusses the challenges to the United States rejoining the CPTPP.
[48:41] Beckley underscores how the political trends in the United States make rejoining the agreement difficult and addresses the technology issue with intellectual property.
[50:11] Hammes highlights that the United States is well positioned to take advantage of the fourth industrial revolution.
Asia Policy Assembly 2019 was held on June 18–19 in Washington, D.C. Learn more.
About Asia Insight
The NBR podcast series Asia Insight features interviews with top Asia experts about key issues affecting the Indo-Pacific region, with a focus on implications for U.S. policy and businesses. Subscribe to Asia Insight on Podbean and Apple Podcasts and let us know what you think of the podcast on Twitter.
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This podcast was edited by Owen Nguyen at NBR.