Strategic Outlooks for Taiwan amid a Complex Security Environment

Laura Rosenberger served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for China and Taiwan at the National Security Council in the Biden Administration and as chair of the American Institute in Taiwan from March 2023 to January 2025.

Roy D. Kamphausen is Special Advisor to the President and Senior Fellow for Chinese Security at NBR.

Michael Wills is President of NBR.

Timestamps

[1:26] We are living in a period of intensifying U.S.-China strategic geopolitical and geoeconomic competition, as well as growing assertiveness by the People’s Republic of China in the Indo-Pacific region. How do you assess the current state of the U.S.-Taiwan relationship?

[8:40] The security aspects of the U.S. relationship with Taiwan and the growing interest of countries around Taiwan in Taiwan’s security and on cross-strait stability.

[13:07] Looking at the nonmilitary aspects of PRC pressure on Taiwan, what are the nonmilitary pressures that China is asserting on Taiwan, how can Taiwan respond, and what else might we do to support Taiwan?

[18:41] There is a narrative on Taiwan that Taiwan’s population is pretty cognizant of united front activities and the disinformation/misinformation work that the PRC is doing. Is this an accurate assessment of the digital literacy of the Taiwanese population in terms of some of the activities the PRC is engaged in?

[21:24] Observations from the NBR delegation to Taiwan.

[23:56] The developments, modernization, and reforms that Taiwan is making in its own defense. Balance in Taiwan’s security between continuing to develop legacy military platforms (e.g., submarines, frigates, fighter jets) versus shifting more toward innovative defense systems (e.g., drones).

[27:55] Looking out over the next five to ten years at cross-strait dynamics, what are some of the potential indicators or milestones that would tell us something significant is changing?

[29:23] How do we track those steady pressure efforts by the PRC for the warning signs to ensure we have not reached the tipping point where it would be too late to do anything useful?