Gaining the Upper Hand in Future Wars? Developing the Personnel of the PLA

Executive Summary

MAIN ARGUMENT

The PLA has long realized that, in order to become a truly world-class military, the health, skills, organization, education, and loyalty of its officers and noncommissioned officers would all need to improve. Those efforts have taken a variety of forms over the years, but loyalty and skill levels currently most concern the PLA’s leadership. To ensure loyalty, the PLA has redoubled its commitment to political work, in addition to implementing a range of policies designed to make military life easier and more rewarding. To increase skill levels, it has improved training exercises and assessments, expanded educational offerings, and deepened its partnerships with civilian institutions. Despite these efforts, the PLA continues to face challenges in sustaining morale, in helping the force adjust to major organizational reforms, and in developing its officers’ skills to match the fast-changing operational and technological needs of the force.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

• If assessments of the PLA’s capabilities do not carefully consider personnel issues, in addition to factors such as equipment and funding, they will likely overestimate the effectiveness of China’s military on the battlefield.
• The PLA leadership is keenly aware of the limitations in its officers’ capabilities, which could instill caution about becoming involved in open conflict with another world-class military like the U.S. If U.S. officials need avenues through which to convince China’s civilian leaders that conflict is not in their interests, PLA interlocutors might merit consideration.
• In order to gain a clearer picture of the PLA’s capabilities, observers should devote resources not just to identifying initiatives to do so but also to gaining a broader sense of how those initiatives are playing out in PLA officers’ lives across the entire force.

Eric Hundman is the Director of Research at BluePath Labs.