China’s military modernization, coupled with increasingly assertive behavior, has led to more frequent and dangerous encounters between the PLA and the militaries of countries across the Indo-Pacific. These interactions have heightened tensions, with specific incidents emphasizing the risk of miscalculations that could escalate into major conflicts. Through case studies on Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam, this report aims to understand the PLA’s strategic calculus on escalation, assessing the potential for conflict in the region and exploring shared threat perceptions, regional responses, and implications for deterrence.

UPCOMING EVENT

A public event on June 6, 2024, will draw upon this report, featuring leading security experts from the region. Learn more and register.