Book from the People's Liberation Army Conference
Competing for Access: China’s Growing Security Interest in the Pacific Islands
The book will be released in late May.
This chapter analyzes the significant increase in China’s security engagement with the Pacific Islands since 2017 as part of a grand strategy to grow its geopolitical influence, develop geostrategic access, and accumulate resources in the region through comprehensive whole-of-nation statecraft.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAIN ARGUMENT
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has actively employed security statecraft to develop access, presence, and posture in the Pacific Islands to achieve strategic objectives in competition short of conflict. The increased employment of PRC security means in the Pacific Islands, integrated with political and economic statecraft, has intensified since 2020, demonstrating a rising strategic priority. The PRC’s nontraditional security forces (including police, the China Coast Guard, and the People’s Armed Police) are part of a holistic security statecraft system, alongside the People’s Liberation Army. A police presence is more easily normalized than a military one, can affect the local rule of law, and can generate greater influence and access within the host nation. The expansion of China’s police assistance could exacerbate unrest or cede sovereignty. Domestic instability and climate-related crises could also become vectors for Chinese security statecraft.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
- All countries should understand the strategic intent behind China’s efforts to achieve access in the Pacific Islands as part of its comprehensive grand strategy to control strategic space.
- All parties should recognize the growing importance of police as China’s preferred means for competing in the Pacific.
- Western partners need to better understand the interests and agency of Pacific Island states to assist development, mitigate natural disasters, and build on respected programs.
- Partner nations should prepare to deal with civil unrest in a rapid, economical, flexible, and nuanced fashion, possibly in cooperation with Chinese forces, to meet Pacific needs.
Peter Connolly is an Adjunct Fellow at the University of New South Wales in Canberra and the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C, and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Solomon Islands National University.
