AUKUS Pillar I: Commitments, Capabilities, and Continuity

Since the announcement in March 2023 of Optimal Pathway, how has the AUKUS agreement evolved, and what are the most significant developments or trends in Pillar I from an Australian perspective?

Announced over three years ago, the AUKUS agreement represents a historic trilateral commitment between three major powers: the United States, as the world’s preeminent superpower; the United Kingdom, a respected middle power; and Australia, a long-standing and capable ally. That initial agreement laid the foundation for what would become Pillar I of AUKUS: a pathway for Australia to join the nuclear-powered submarine community. These submarines will be conventionally armed, nuclear-powered, and developed in full compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Australia remains committed.

Building on the foundation of Pillar I, the scope of AUKUS expanded to include Pillar II, which focuses on collaboration in advanced defense technologies. This effort spans government, the private sector, academic institutions, and investors in all three countries to ensure that military and end users have access to the most advanced capabilities. Pillar II covers areas such as quantum technologies, electronic warfare, undersea capabilities, autonomous systems, hypersonics, and counter-hypersonics.

Australia’s Optimal Pathway is made up of four core components: first, the establishment of a nuclear submarine culture within the Australian military through regulatory frameworks, training programs, infrastructure, and exchange opportunities; second, the creation of the Submarine Rotational Force–West in Western Australia, which will host rotational deployments of U.S. Navy, and potentially Royal Navy, submarines; third, the acquisition of three Virginia-class submarines in the early 2030s, with an option for two more; and fourth, the joint development of the SSN-AUKUS class submarine with the UK.

The endeavor is both a privilege to be a part of and a challenge for Australia, requiring significant financial, industrial, political, and societal commitment. The road ahead should not be underestimated.

While Pillar II has made progress, the pace has been slower than anticipated. Accelerating deliverables and identifying projects within the eight designated focus areas are essential. The window for action is immediate and critical.

The UK and United States have initiated strategic reviews of AUKUS. Has Australia recalibrated its strategic approach in light of these developments?

Recent strategic reviews of AUKUS in the UK, Australia, and now the United States are not unexpected and are a normal response to an evolving strategic environment, political transitions, and financial realities. The past six months of 2025 alone have seen, the ongoing war in Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, the Israel-Iran confrontation, and broader industrial base challenges. These are reminders of how quickly the strategic environment can shift.

There is also a renewed recognition of the critical enablers of military power, especially fuel and munitions. The global demand for advanced military systems, such as precision missiles, drones, and logistics capabilities, has created pressure and strained supply chains. In such a dynamic environment, governments are within their right to reassess their strategic posture, domestic requirements, and budgetary commitments. It would be unrealistic to expect that Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine program will not face at least ten reviews over its projected 50-year lifespan.

From Australia’s perspective, continued commitment to Pillar I remains vital to the country’s long-term defense posture. The Optimal Pathway provides a flexible roadmap that allows for necessary course correction. Importantly, the name chosen for the first pillar is not accidental. It was deliberately chosen to signal flexibility and risk mitigation. Australia must remain alert to the possibility of significant changes and adjust accordingly, without losing sight of its overall strategic objectives.

The U.S. and UK submarine industrial bases are facing constraints, including workforce shortages, supply chain bottlenecks, and production backlogs. These challenges threaten to delay Virginia-class and SSN-AUKUS submarine delivery timelines. How are the AUKUS partners, particularly Australia, working individually and collectively to mitigate these industrial base shortfalls?

Industrial base constraints present real and pressing risks. Shipbuilding is a complex, long-term endeavor, and its success depends on the performance and capacity of industry partners.

Years of post–Cold War demobilization of Western defense industries led to a significant contraction in workforce and industrial capacity. In the United States, the number of major defense primes decreased from 50 to 10, and many facilities closed. Today, the world is entering a period of remobilization, and the pace of recovery must match the urgency of the strategic demands. Industrial revitalization requires more than just ambition, funding, or political will. It requires physical infrastructure, modernized factories, advanced technologies, and most importantly a skilled workforce. China currently outperforms all Western nations in shipbuilding and submarine production, which is a major strategic concern.

Australia is investing in its own shipbuilding capabilities, while also contributing to the U.S. industrial base. To acquire Virginia-class submarines, Australian support must help strengthen the broader system, from construction and sustainment to upgrades. Developing a pipeline of skilled workers is essential, particularly in specialized trades such as submarine welding, which take years to develop. Overcoming these bottlenecks will require coordinated investments, trust among stakeholders, and a long-term commitment to workforce readiness.

Emerging and disruptive firms like Anduril, Palantir, SpaceX, and Saronic also play a critical role. These companies offer advanced technologies and can introduce novel technologies, greenfield facilities, and Industry 5.0 methods such as digital engineering and additive manufacturing. These firms are reimagining traditional approaches.

During my recent interactions with U.S. officials, including a visit to the White House, it became clear that the current pace is insufficient. U.S. leadership is holding industry to account.

Amid concerns over U.S. submarine production capacity and growing scrutiny in Washington, skepticism is mounting about Australia’s ability to acquire Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s. How can Canberra engage with the Trump administration to ensure the delivery of AUKUS submarine capabilities as outlined in the original agreement?

Effective engagement begins with understanding U.S. political and strategic perspectives. Key officials in the Trump administration have expressed the need for an “America first” approach, even within alliance frameworks. If the U.S. submarine industrial base cannot meet its own needs, let alone AUKUS-related demands, concerns become understandable. Current projections suggest that the United States would need to build at least 2.3 Virginia-class submarines per year, plus Columbia-class boats, to fulfill both its national and alliance commitments. This is a significant increase from the current pace of 1.2 submarines.

Australia’s task is to be a credible, reliable partner. This involves not only financial contributions, but also physical infrastructure. At the Henderson and Osborne shipyards, Australia is building state-of-the-art facilities that could support U.S. production and ease pressure on American shipyards.

Direct investment in the U.S. defense industrial base is also underway. Austal, for example, is currently expanding its shipbuilding capacity in Mobile, Alabama. It is one of several companies positioned to support Virginia-class module production. These types of initiatives can provide relief to the U.S. system while strengthening bilateral ties.

Embracing emerging technologies and new production timelines is equally important. At Saronic, autonomous surface vessels go from concept to prototype to field testing within six months. While nuclear submarines are vastly more complex, the principle of speed-to-capability remains relevant.

Finally, Australia must maintain political, military, and industrial engagements with the United States. The bipartisan AUKUS caucus in the U.S. Congress is an essential partner in this effort. Their support for Australia’s acquisition of Virginia-class submarines and the country’s broader preparedness efforts is critical.

Delivering on AUKUS will require strategic patience, industrial discipline, and sustained political will. The Optimal Pathway, starting with the acquisition of Virginia-class submarines and culminating with the SSN-AUKUS, offers an ambitious roadmap. The delivery of the first SSN-AUKUS submarine by 2040 is an aggressive, but achievable, goal, given the alignment of resources, leadership, and trust.

Rear Admiral Lee Goddard is the former Commander of Australia’s Maritime Border Command and a current board member of Austal and advisor to Saronic Technologies.

This interview was conducted by Bruno Hernandez Sotres, who is a project manager with the Political and Security Affairs group at NBR.

In Part II, RADM Goddard will look at the future of AUKUS Pillar II, offering insights into the pace of technology cooperation, the role of emerging defense innovators, and how the AUKUS partnership might evolve into a broader regional framework.