NBR Analysis vol. 5, no 2
The Political Economy of North Korea, 1994
Conditions in North Korea have led to many outside pundits to predict the collapse of the North Korean economy, which would seriously affect North Korea’s neighbors, including China and South Korea. What lies ahead for North Korea? Will the economy collapse or recover, and with what political consequences? Are effective reforms likely to be implemented?
The new North Korean regime led by Kim Jong Il faces grave economic problems. North Korea’s industrial production has declined steadily in recent years, and an increasing number of North Korean defectors report serious food shortages. These are desperate years for the North Korean people, who have not known much prosperity since the end of the Korean War. These conditions have led to many outside pundits to predict the collapse of the North Korean economy, which would seriously affect North Korea’s neighbors, including China and South Korea. What lies ahead for North Korea? Will the economy collapse or recover, and with what political consequences? Are effective reforms likely to be implemented? These are some of the questions I propse to explore.