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North Korea Bold Switchover

The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) held a conference in Beijing on January 18–19,, 2006, entitled "Regional Economic Implications of DPRK Security Behavior: The 'Bold Switchover' Concept," which analyzed the potential domestic and regional economic benefits that would emerge from a potential North Korean "bold switchover" in security policy. Conference participants – representatives from USA, ROK, Japan, Russia, and China – examined the ways in which this hypothetical relaxation of North Korea's security posture would affect regional trade, investment, output, and employment. They also explored the benefits that would accrue to the North Korean economy, and even touched upon some of the potential regional responses in terms of financial aid.

Below, please find links to a selection of the conference papers. The Conference Report gives a broad overview and presents ten themes that emerged during the January conference. Nicholas Eberstadt, the conference co-chair, provides an overview of the “bold switchover” concept, and examines the economic benefits that would result if Pyongyang shifted from its “military-first politics” to “defense sufficiency.” Charles Wolf examines the issues and costs associated with Korean reunification. Masahiro Kawai investigates strategies for a North Korean transition toward a market economy and assesses conditions for international assistance with such a transition. Bradley O. Babson examines the involvement of international financial institutions (IFIs) in financing North Korean economic development. Marcus Noland examines the flip side of the issue: instead of looking at the economic ramifications of a "bold switchover," he explores the economic impact of a North Korean nuclear break out, either in the form of a nuclear test or proliferation. Finally, Zhao Huji analyzes North Korean strategies for dealing with the country’s economic and political crises.

• Final Conference Report
  Regional Implications of DPRK Security Behavior: The “Bold Switchover” Concept (click here to view in English)
  中文版 (click here to view in Chinese)

• Economic Implications of a “Bold Switchover” in DPRK Security Policy
  - Nicholas Eberstadt

• Korean Reunification and Reconstruction: Circumstances, Costs, and Implications
  - Charles Wolf

• Economic Transition of North Korea and International Assistance: Implications of Japan-DPRK Normalization
  - Masahiro Kawai

• Implications of a “Bold Switchover” in Security Policy for Involving Financial Institutions in Financing North Korean Economic Development - Bradley Babson

• Economic and Social Implications of China-DPRK Border Trade for China’s Northeast
  - Li Dunqiu

• The Economic Implications of a North Korean Nuclear Breakout
  - Marcus Noland

• The Structural Crises and the Survival Strategies of North Korea
  - Zhao Huji

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